Forecasting: Weighted Indicate and Dramatical Smoothing




January 17, 2014

Janice Gilstorff


Exercise 9. you

Forecasting is known as a guess of what the economical future contains (production outcome or sales). In the scenario in the book workout 9. 1 they want you to forecast the actual 20X5 numbers would be. It does give you several background information, like the Human solutions expenses over the past four years. 20X1 [$5, two hundred fifity, 000]

20X2 [$5, five-hundred, 000]

20X3 [$6, 1000, 000]

20X4 [$6, 750, 000]

Weighted shifting averages and moving uses, just use the data within the past three money years. This may look like this kind of Moving Averages-

20X2 [$5, 500, 000]

20X3 [$6, 000, 000]

20X4 [$6, 750, 000]

20X5 [$6, 083, 000]

With just the three we all already understood the total of $18, two hundred fifity, 000. In case you divide the whole by three you get, $6, 083, 000. Excess weight averages-

20X2 $5, 500, 000 1=$5, 500, 500

20X3 $6, 000, 500 2=12, 500, 000

20X4 $6, 750, 000 3=$20, 250, 1000

20X5 $6, 300, 1000 6=$37, 750, 000

Pertaining to 20X5 My spouse and i divided by simply 6 (which represents the values 1+2+3=6), which equals $6, 291, 667 or perhaps $6, three hundred, 000 as a weighted common. From the info gathered a prediction intended for the forecast can be built. Exponential smoothing:

The alpha dog method of 0. 95 would work here. The formula could look like this kind of: NF=LF & a (LD- LF) Previous Forecast (LF) = $6, 300, 000

Last Info (LD) = $6, 750, 000

a = 0. 9

NF = LF + (LD LF)

NF = 6th, 300, 000 + zero. 95(6, 750, 000 -- 6, three hundred, 000)

NF=6, 300, 000 + zero. 95*450, 500

NF=6, 300, 000 +427, 500

NF= 6, 727, 500

Physical exercise 9. a few

Here you are staying asked to get the forecast of most sources. The reading gave you Palmdale's four fiscal years. 20X1 [$15, 000, 000]

20X2 [$14, 250, 000]

20X3 [$14, 000, 000]

20X4 [$13, 500, 000]

The forecasting I will use in this article will be going averages, measured moving averages, exponential smoothing, and time series regression. In regards to shifting and measured averages, you merely use the data from the past three years. Shifting averages:

20X2 $14, two hundred and fifty, 000


References: HSM/260 Chapter 9

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